EP election followers saw this chart resembling the predicted seats of the European political groups in the new Parliament. It’s by Electionista and there are many websites and twitter accounts on the same line.
It’s fascinating: even now you can have a fair estimate of the new parliament: you can see that social democrats and popular parties will have pretty much the same seats, that lib-dems and left-wing movements will have a good result, you can see the seats for the conservatives, the greens, the euroskeptics…
But what’s NI? It means Non-Inscrits, it comprises all of the European parties who did not ally with others. It’s not that simple indeed: you need 25 MEPs from 7 different countries to form a group. And a group has access to funds, committee seats… But it must be ideologically tied, it cannot comprise fascists and greens, sort to speak.
The fact is that the Non-Inscrits (or Non-Attached Members) could get 60 to 100 seats, according to the last polls: the third “group” in the Parliament, as Electionista predicts. And possibly, some of them could actually come together in a new eurosceptic alliance. But who are they?
Here you have a country-by-country list of all of the parties who have not an international alliance at the time, and that could get in the new EP. You’ll see who they are and wheter they would join the new group or not.
*Predictions of seats for a single party are my own based on data by Electionista
Alternative for Germany (5 seats ca.): Not against Europe but against euro currency, ideologically liberals and conservatives. Not in the new anti-EU alliance.
National Front (20 seats ca.). The far-right movement is one of the most supported parties in France right now. It is the heart of the possible new inter-state alliance.
British National Party (1 seat ca.). UKIP is in the EFD group. So is not for BNP, more right-wing than UKIP. It could elect a MEP but there would be no space for him/her in the new group.
5 Star Movement (20 seats ca.). It was founded by Italian comedian Beppe Grillo, who refused dialogue with Marine Le Pen for the new alliance. Together with French National Front, 5SM would be the biggest party among Non-Inscrits.
Union Progress and Democracy (5 seats ca.). It is definitely not a right-wing party and it will not join Le Pen or Wilders.
Party for Freedom (4 seats ca.). Geert Wilders is one of the biggest sponsors of the new alliance.
Flemish Interest (1 seat ca.). It’s the nationalist party in the dutch-speaking region of Belgium and there are friendly relations with Le Pen.
Action of Dissatisfied Citizens (5 seats ca.). It is a eurosceptic but not right-wing party, so there are doubts for it to be part of a right-wing alliance
The River (3 seats ca.). It’s a new-born movement created by the former journalist Theodorakis but it has nothing to do with right-wing parties
Golden Dawn (3 seats ca.). It’s probably the most famous of all of the non-inscrits but at the same time it has poor chances for an inter-state alliance.
Sweden Democrats (2 seats ca.). It’s the nationalist party of the country and it’s tied with Le Pen and Wilders by the EAF alliance.
Freedom Party of Austria (4 seats ca.). The right-wing movement could take part to the new group.
Bulgaria Without Censorship (2 seats ca.) is another party founded by a former journalist but it does not seem to have anything to do with right-whing policies.
Attack (1 seat ca.). The Bulgarian nationalist party does not seem compatible with traditional right-wing parties.
In the other countries, Non-Inscrits will have less chance of success.
To sum up: there could be 31 MEPs who could come together under the umbrella of the European Alliance for Freedom. The other 49 MEPs of the list above more will hardly succeed to form a group. To their addition (80) you should add lots of other minor parties that could either elect a single MEP or not succeed at all. With the abolition of the national threshold in Germany, there are at least 5 parties in this position. So you get to Electionista’s 92 NIs.
But this analysis aimed to divide those 92 MEPs. This could be the result:
*By Electionista analysis – march 2
Note that Italy’s Northern League made a deal with Marine Le Pen and will join the new group, leaving EFD.
From now on, I will update this page by taking into account the possible new group. This makes things a bit clearer, as the Le Pen’s new group will probably assemble in a new rally: what I called EAF, after the name of the European party founded in 2010.
At the same time, you can see that NIs are still far from being a united group. It comprises Greece’s Golden Dawn but also German anti-euro liberals and Spanish democrats, for instance. So when you see NI in the lower right of the EP map, do not necessarily think “they are all dangerous nazis”.